Sri Lanka's Coconut Revenue Beats the Total of Maldives' TGST, Green Tax, and Airport Fees

Vintage Maldivian postage stamp featuring a cluster of coconuts, valued at 2 Lares, highlighting the island's tropical heritage.

In 2025, Sri Lanka’s coconut and coconut-based product exports achieved a historic milestone, generating approximately USD 1.23 billion in full-year earnings. This record performance not only marked a substantial increase over previous years but also placed the sector in a striking comparative position relative to key fiscal streams in the neighbouring Maldives. Specifically, Sri Lanka’s coconut export revenue clearly exceeded each of the major individual tourism tax collections administered by the Maldives Inland Revenue Authority (MIRA) and even edged ahead of their combined total. This examines the figures, the drivers behind Sri Lanka’s achievement, the composition of the Maldives’ tourism taxes, the historical and contemporary contrast in the two nations’ relationships with the coconut palm, and the broader demographic and economic challenges facing the Maldives.

"ރާއްޖެއަށް ބޭރުން ކާއްޓާއި މަސް އެތެރެކުރާހިސާބުން އިގްތިސޯދު ހަލާކުވާން ފަށާނެ. ވީމާ އަތޮޅުވެރިން ކާށި އަލާކުރުމާއި މަހަށް ފުރަންޖެހޭނެ" - މުހަންމަދު އަމީން ދީދީ

Sri Lanka's coconut export industry celebrates a milestone, surpassing $1 billion in exports from January to October 2025, with ambitious plans to reach $2.5 billion by 2030, marking a 43.83% growth rate from the previous year.

Sri Lanka’s coconut sector has long been an important contributor to the national economy, but 2025 represented a breakthrough year. Export earnings crossed the USD 1 billion threshold for the first time and ultimately reached an estimated USD 1.23 billion. Growth was fuelled by strong international demand for value-added products, including coconut milk and cream, virgin coconut oil, desiccated coconut, activated carbon, and coir-based items. Despite challenges such as fluctuating nut production, the industry’s focus on processing and market diversification enabled it to deliver robust hard-currency inflows.

On the other side of the comparison stand the Maldives’ principal tourism-related taxes and fees, which form a critical pillar of that country’s public finances. The Tourism Goods and Services Tax (TGST), the single largest tourism tax, generated approximately USD 710–720 million (around MVR 11.0 billion) in 2025, supported by solid tourist arrivals and a mid-year rate increase to 17 percent. The Green Tax, whose rates doubled from the beginning of the year, contributed roughly USD 145–150 million (about MVR 2.25 billion). Combined collections from the Departure Tax and Airport Development Fee (ADF) added a further approximately USD 246 million. Each of these streams is substantial in its own right and reflects the Maldives’ heavy reliance on high-end tourism.

Coconut vs. Tourism Taxes

When measured individually, Sri Lanka’s USD 1.23 billion in coconut exports substantially outstripped every one of these taxes. The margin was particularly wide against the Green Tax (roughly eight times higher) and the combined airport-related charges (about five times higher), while still remaining clearly ahead of TGST by 70–75 percent. More notably, even when the three largest pure tourism taxes and fees-TGST, Green Tax, and Departure Tax plus ADF-are aggregated, their total reaches only about USD 1.10–1.12 billion. Sri Lanka’s coconut export earnings therefore finished the year slightly ahead of this combined figure as well. The ability of a single Sri Lankan commodity sector to match or surpass the sum of the Maldives’ core tourism taxes highlights differing economic structures: one rooted in agricultural processing and export trade, the other in service-based visitor spending.

This modern disparity stands in sharp contrast to historical records. For centuries, the Maldives was well-known across the Indian Ocean and beyond for coconut-related products. Coconut palms provided food, materials for housing and boatbuilding, and fibre for rope-most famously coir rope, which was highly valued in regional maritime trade alongside cowrie shells. The islands once exported these coconut-derived goods as part of monsoon-driven commerce. Today, however, the Maldives faces a major coconut crisis. Most local palm trees are old, dying, and affected by diseases such as sooty mould and the coconut hispid beetle. Yields have declined sharply, land has been converted for tourism and housing, and the country has become a net importer of mature coconuts to meet domestic demand. What was once a symbol of abundance and a modest export strength has become a source of scarcity.

Compounding these resource challenges are profound demographic shifts. The average fertility rate in the Maldives has dropped sharply from past decades, falling well below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman to approximately 1.56 to 1.7 children per woman. This decline reflects major changes in modern lifestyles, economic pressures, urbanisation, and social structures across the islands. Combined with rising life expectancy-now climbing past 81 years-and smaller family sizes, the population is aging rapidly. The future of the Maldivian population points toward an accelerated transition into an “aged” and eventually a “super-aged” society.

These demographic trends carry significant implications for the Maldives’ economy and long-term sustainability. An aging population will increase pressure on healthcare, pensions, and social services while potentially shrinking the working-age labour force that underpins both the tourism industry and public administration. Heavy reliance on tourism revenues-already vulnerable to global shocks, climate risks, and changing travel patterns-may become more challenging as the fiscal burden of supporting an older population grows. At the same time, the decline of traditional resources such as productive coconut palms reduces options for economic diversification and local food security. In contrast, Sri Lanka’s ability to extract substantial export value from its coconut sector illustrates one pathway for leveraging agricultural assets amid demographic and environmental pressures.

In conclusion, Sri Lanka’s full-year coconut export earnings of approximately USD 1.23 billion in 2025 not only represent a domestic success but also surpass the combined total of the Maldives’ TGST, Green Tax, and Departure Tax plus Airport Development Fee (roughly USD 1.10–1.12 billion). This outcome underscores the power of value-added agricultural exports. For the Maldives, the comparison arrives at a moment of dual transition: the fading of a once-important coconut heritage amid disease and aging palms, and a demographic shift toward an aged and eventually super-aged society driven by low fertility and longer lifespans. Navigating these challenges will require strategic diversification, investment in human capital, climate resilience, and careful fiscal planning if the islands are to sustain prosperity in the decades ahead.